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Tom Johnson ist Co-CEO von H/Advisors und CEO von H/Advisors Abernathy. Wir haben ihm drei Fragen zu den Herausforderungen für Unternehmen angesichts der weltpolitischen Lage gestellt und ihn um eine Einschätzung aus Sicht der USA gebeten. Hier sind seine Antworten (auf Englisch):
What are the biggest challenges facing companies in the U.S. due to the current political disruptions?
Businesses across the United States have faced a significant amount of uncertainty and economic whiplash since President Trump returned to office in January. Post-election enthusiasm for less stringent regulatory and lower tax environment has given way to what has felt at times like an almost intentionally disruptive and pre-planned agenda to implement a rigorous global tariff regime and dismantle several U.S. government agencies, as well as multiple global bi-lateral agreements. Corporate America remains optimistic that the environment will eventually improve, but rising concerns about inflation re-emerging buffeted by stiff swings in the stock markets have left many executives more inclined to wait and see where, and when, stability will return before spending their capital.
Indeed, many companies have been taken aback by the administration’s even more aggressive on-again, off-again approach to trade and tariffs against even allies, its efforts to end wars in Ukraine and Israel, and its willingness to cast aside long-maintained global organizations, such as the World Health Council and the United Nations’ Human Rights Council. Still, business leaders have treaded lightly in their response, preferring private conversations to the public bully pulpit even when they disagree with the administration, with several choosing rather obvious and public efforts to curry favor with Trump and his team despite the global concern. As one executive noted after a high-profile capitulation to Trump’s demands, there are businesses to run and their future may depend on peace with the administration.
Their jobs are far from easy. In this environment, the largest challenges they face are:
- Navigating immense uncertainty: Businesses are trying hard to navigate a policy and regulatory environment that shifts quickly – and often several times a day, sometimes at Trump’s whim. The question business leaders now ask themselves seemingly daily: What’s real and what’s just rhetoric? Trump is moving incredibly quickly to change as much of the federal government and the U.S.’s global posture as quickly as possible, mindful that if Democrats win House and Senate control next fall, his legacy-fortifying agenda could stall. And he’s doing a lot of it by issuing “executive orders” that circumvent Congress and all but daring the court system to try to stop him. In some cases, they are, but now the question has arisen as to whether the administration will comply. That’s left a lot business leaders questioning what policy, law or regulation to follow.
- Becoming a target: During his last term, companies feared a Trump tweet criticizing them, an action that usually triggered temporary stock price drops for public companies and calls for consumer boycotts, but not much else. This term, however, Trump’s political base is more powerful, his allies have an even bigger megaphone and his biggest funder and counsellor, Elon Musk, owns and liberally posts criticisms of companies, many government contractors, on X, unleashing a torrent of criticism. The President or his administration turning on a business could have significant impact, especially for companies that work with the federal government and could find their contracts at risk. Mindful of this, business leaders are trying not to making a public move that runs afoul of Trump’s agenda, for example,. speaking out against tariff hikes that could raise prices for U.S. consumers, embracing DE&I, ESG and other initiatives Trump supporters consider “woke.” However, they also are mindful of the need to address the concerns of their other stakeholders, especially employees, shareholders and business partners. It’s all yet another tightrope they’re having to walk.
- Market fluctuations: For publicly traded companies, a big question is how to understand what the Trump administration wants and what it will be able to enact into law. After Trump was elected, the markets were buoyed by the notion of a Republican in office and expected a traditional business-friendly environment. But the stock market gains since Trump took office have been entirely erased as it became clear that Trump is determined to wield tariff hikes to as a punitive measure against countries, including close allies like Canada and Mexico, for what he sees as an unfair balance of trade, particularly in waning industrial sectors Trump has promised to remake. Now, some business leaders have taken their private musings about Trump policies pushing the nation into a recession public, and Trump hasn’t ruled out that the strong economy he inherited could fall into recession but says today’s pain would be worth tomorrow’s gain. That’s left companies bracing for what each day will bring and watching as the markets careen.
What do businesses need to do to regain greater planning security? What role can the business sector play in restoring greater planning security to the system?
U.S. business leaders need to take the long view and have a sense of history as they adapt to this political and regulatory environment. While this administration is moving quickly, voters will decide who leads Congress in just short 20 months and will vote for a new president in just 3.5 years. There is little question that Trump will continue to test the boundaries of his power unless or until Congress or the courts step in to intervene. But there are other factors that must be paid attention to as well. The U.S. economy proved to be the most important issue for voters in the 2024 election, and odds are it will be so again in 2026, when control of Congress is next decided. So far, the Democratic party has been largely absent from the broader debate, unable to mount an effective or even coordinated strategy for slowing the administration’s agenda. Businesses and their leaders are similarly not likely to be the bulwark, but they will be very close studies on how the activity in Washington is impacting everything from their supply chains to their customers’ wallets. Those factors (“What does this ultimately mean for my business?”) should determine the steps they need to take to adopt and safeguard their strategies.
Perhaps like no other administration in recent memory, information will be key. Leaders will need to work hard to translate the impact of decisions, or threats of decisions, being made in Washington into what it may mean for their operations and, ultimately, their bottom line. In addition to having the right in-house government affairs officials internally, executives would be wise to surround themselves with well-informed advisors as well. Companies that are braced for uncertainty yet remain agile to seize unique and temporary opportunities will have the greatest success in the face of disparate and motivated initiatives from the Trump administration. Observation and decisive action, along with an ability to stay nimble as the environment changes, will be key. Here is how to do that:
- Monitor everything. The administration’s “flood the zone” approach to policy effectively keeps opponents off-guard and makes it difficult to understand what applies to whom. Companies must invest the time and resources to track issues of importance to them and gather intelligence wherever possible. On-the-ground intelligence in Washington has and will remain paramount.
- Watch the federal court system, where the action has now largely moved, with several judges – who tend to care more about the rule of law than partisan politics – delaying or halting action stemming from Trump’s flood the zone strategy of executive orders and Musk’s efforts to shrink the government.
- Pay attention to potential collateral damage in the states, where the extremely diverse, but also extraordinarily fragile, Trump voting coalition could show signs of cracking as he makes big moves that ultimately could alienate voters, especially those in the most conservative states. Should this happen, it will pose the biggest risk to the Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections, so business leaders would be wise to pay attention where specifically this is happening.
- Most of all, stay close to key stakeholders and prepare to respond to pressure from both employees and shareholders who undoubtedly will seek to understand how leadership is navigating through all this.
What are your top 3 recommendations for companies to establish sustainable and trustworthy communication with policymakers, the public, and other businesses, fostering long-term resilience?
- Be patient. Companies that make, and communicate about, fast business moves to acquiesce to Trump now are playing a delicate game of chess. Staying out of the administration’s crosshairs provides some stability on one side, but as Telsa is discovering, stakeholders on the other side may escalate business risk as well. Making decisions too quickly based on the shifting winds in Washington may create more risk, particularly with some federal judges beginning to intervene. And policies could change again or we enter a period of extended gridlock should control of Congress shift again in two years. Listen closely to your advisors, play the long game and be cautious in both actions and communications. Don’t put heads in the sand and pretend that it’s business as usual. It’s not. But neither is it a moment to hide. Business finds opportunity in all kinds of markets. The goal now is to find where the opportunity lies here.
- Acknowledge the mess. Keep in mind that your stakeholders are likely even more confused, and perhaps fearful, about what is happening than you are. This is not an environment where everything can be planned perfectly, but stakeholders will want to sense confidence and calm. Communicate how the leadership team has planned for and is monitoring the developments out of Washington. Reassure stakeholders that leadership is making the best decisions for the business and importantly is remaining nimble so it can adjust as it needs to. This may require communicating consistent, but different messages depending on the audiences. It may also require communicating more often they you would typically. Promise transparency and back it up by disclosing any changes as soon as possible, directly to stakeholders
- Trust advisors. Keep close to the leadership team the people who understand the signals from the Trump administration, their language, as well as Congress, the court system and the tricky interplay between politics and the law. Understand who can separate what matters and what doesn’t and listen to them. It’s very difficult to influence the political process without understanding the politics – and even harder to influence the legal process without understanding the law. The traditional rules do not apply in this environment, so business leaders cannot play by them. Stand firm on your corporate mission, but be prepared to alter how and when you talk about how your current strategy. Employees, customers and other stakeholders want to know their company is a steady ship in choppy waters. That is articulated through clear communication and, importantly, backed up by how a company acts. Stakeholders will pay attention and remember when the political environment shifts again, which it inevitably will.
Foto: H/Advisors
