Geopolitics

24 February was a date that unexpectedly revealed a blind spot in the strategic thinking of German companies. Giga­bytes of market research and analyses of market develop­ments, mega­trends and competitors underpin strategy formulation and narrative with facts and reasoning. However, they do not explain and provide insights into global power shifts and their impact on trade and business. Scenario planning based on geo­political develop­ments? Financial and corporate inter­pretation of geo­political power structures? These considerations are largely absent. Geopolitics is widely being ignored as a strategic factor determining corporate activities.

It also reflects a collective failure of strategic consulting firms and mega­trend research over the course of years or even decades. Even now, four months after the invasion, the usual topics still dominate the web­sites of large strategy consulting firms. You might stumble across the odd article assessing the war in Ukraine, but nothing more. There are few in-depth analyses of how geo­politics has become relevant in strategic terms. The silence is deafening. Mega­trend research, which is usually always quick to give a well-rounded and verbose response to new developments, is also silent this time. Here, too, there has been no great reflection or in-depth analysis.

In this respect, answers to new key geo­political questions surrounding strategic policy are urgently needed. Until now, there has been little reason for stake­holders to ask the right questions. Strategy was largely considered to be a geopolitics-free zone in corporate Germany. But that is set to change in the next few months. Unbounded globali­sation suddenly no longer appears to be an un­challenged paradigm guiding corporate strategy. Stake­holders will increasingly expect reflection on geo­politics so as to clarify the strategy and focus of the company in the coming years.

We cannot yet say what this specifically entails, but one thing is clear. The under­lying patterns of corporate strategic thinking in Germany need to be revisited and diversified. This indicates that the relevance and influence of corporate communi­cations will grow sub­stantially in the years ahead.

Photo: iStock.com/Baona